2013年七月份房地产市场统计

七月份销售增长强劲

------ 缩紧的市场供给，使得价格保持上扬走势

 （近期石油行业的大幅裁员，我不知这种上扬能够保持多久？且看地产局分析…）

Calgary, 八月一日, 2013 – 本月民宅共售出2,268 套，比去年同期涨幅17%，比今年初涨了6%！！！

6月20日的罕见洪水天灾使得销售更加如火如荼，很多购买交易和被迫迁离的租客、另寻住址的房主息息相关。 但是更多的买家其实已经在市场上寻觅了很久，不过加快了购买决定而已，因为不确定日渐紧俏的供给对价格的影响究竟有多大。

 卡尔加里的房地产市场绝对是卖方市场了，支撑了价格走高。尽管本月价格涨幅比去年同期几乎高近7%，但是整个市场基准价却稳稳保持在$414,100。（突破需要由经济支撑啊！）

很多卖家一直等候着价格恢复，好挂牌。目前的市场状况已经刺激挂牌量上扬了，独立屋本月售出1,575套，比去年同期涨14 %。全年累计独立屋售出套数涨幅仅为2.5%。尽管新挂牌数量涨至 1,958套，但并不足已缓解市场供给压力。总体来讲，目前在售房源2,917套，已经比2012年最低挂牌量低了近20%。

本月公寓共售出693 单元，比去年同期涨26%，全年累计成交量涨幅为16%！

公寓成交量狂增和独立屋市场息息相关，因为公寓具有可承受的价位段。截至目前为止，公寓市场40万以内的新挂牌房源远远多于独立屋。

买家购买能承受房源的主要考虑因素为社区、房屋产品本身、价格等等。尽管很多社区有买家预算内的房源，但是部分买家更倾向于在喜欢的社区内、同样预算内买套公寓，或者买套入住前少量升级投入的房子。

对公寓需求的增长就带动了其攻击的吃紧，本于共管公寓、排屋在售房源分别下降至 768 、407 单元。紧俏的供给支撑了房地产的各个领域产品，尽管总体价格保持不变，但是公寓市场是价格涨幅最大的部分。本月公寓市场基准价为$267,600，比六月份涨1.4%、比去年同期涨近8%。独立屋及排屋市场基准价分别为 $461,600 、 $294,500 。

洪水将会影响受灾区域的销售、挂牌、价格走势，但是其对整个房地产二手房市场的影响在日后几个月将会慢慢消逝。本月销售增长比年初至今的走势强劲，也高过了长线平均走势。然而，如果新挂牌量继续提高，将会缓解紧张的市场状况。

2007-2012年加拿大各大城市成交套数、价格对比图

 

Canadian real estate markets demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2012—with home sales up or on par in 65 per cent of major centres—despite considerable headwinds in terms of tighter financing and economic uncertainty abroad. The trend is expected to continue, with home-buying activity propped-up by low interest rates and an improved economic picture in 2013, according to a report released today by RE/MAX.

 

The RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook 2013 examined trends and developments in 26 major markets across the country. The report found that the number of homes sold is expected to match or exceed 2011 levels in 65 per cent of markets (17/26) in 2012, led by strong activity in Western Canada, including Calgary (up 13.5 per cent) and Regina (eight per cent). Eighty-one per cent (21/26) of markets are set to experience average price increases by year-end 2012, with Regina the country’s frontrunner at eight per cent, followed by Hamilton-Burlington, Greater Toronto, and Fredericton at seven per cent and Saskatoon at 6.5 per cent. The forecast for 2013 shows the upward trend moderating, but values still ahead of 2012 levels in 85 per cent (22/26) of centres. Stability is forecast to characterize Canadian real estate in the new year, with sales above or on par with 2012 levels in 81 per cent (21/26) of markets.

Nationally, an estimated 454,000 homes will change hands in 2012, falling one per cent short of the 2011 level of 456,749. Canadian home sales are expected to almost mirror the 2012 performance next year, holding steady at 454,000 units. The average price of a Canadian home is expected to remain stable at $364,000 in 2012—on par with the figure reported in 2011. Values are expected to appreciate nominally in 2013, rising to $366,500, one per cent above year-end 2012 levels.
“Looking forward, there are a number of factors on the horizon that will serve to bolster residential activity in 2013,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “Canada’s economic performance is expected to show signs of improvement, particularly in the latter half of the year, which should bode well for housing markets across the country. Historically low interest rates will also continue to drive healthy home-buying activity, especially in the move-up segment. Last, but certainly not least, there’s no denying the universal appeal of bricks and mortar. Canadians believe in homeownership. The stability of real estate over the long-term continues to fuel its appeal.”

The report found that low interest rates were a major impetus in 2012, fuelling sales of homes across the board. Tight inventory levels also factored into the equation early in the year, causing a flurry of activity in many centres. By mid-year, however, the third round of CMHC mortgage tightening had a noticeable impact on housing markets, pushing homeownership beyond the grasp of many first-time buyers.

The RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook Report also identified several regional disparities. Most notable was the pull back in sales activity in Greater Vancouver. A banner 2011 year and a slowdown in investor activity contributed to the trend in 2012. Yet, moderation was more widespread in the east, with half of Ontario and Atlantic Canada markets (8/16) reporting 2012 sales off the 2011 pace. Strength was evident throughout Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Nova Scotia, where exceptionally sound economic fundamentals drove demand. The Prairies also stood out in price appreciation, along with the Atlantic Provinces in 2012, and a repeat is on tap for next year. In 2013, Vancouver will rebound to post the strongest sales gain, while the Quebec markets post the sharpest decrease.

“Despite all the negativity surrounding residential real estate, the sky is not falling,” says Gurinder Sandhu, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Home sales have moderated, but remain within healthy levels. Greater optimism is expected to return next year, as the economy marks further improvement. Canadians appear to be reigning in their spending, heeding cautionary statements by the country’s financial leaders. We believe that will only serve to shore up the already healthy framework of the Canadian housing market in 2013.”

While first-time buyers will continue to have a significant presence in the overall marketplace, they are expected to take a back seat in 2013 in Canada’s largest markets—with move-up buyers the new engine driving home-buying activity. The greatest advance in home sales is expected in Vancouver (12 per cent), Calgary (10 per cent), Halifax (five per cent), Kingston (4.5 per cent) and Saint John (four per cent). The strongest upward momentum in average price in 2013 is forecast for St. John’s (six per cent), Regina (five per cent), Kingston (4.5 per cent), and Halifax (four per cent), followed by Fredericton and Winnipeg at three per cent. More balanced market conditions are expected in 2013 throughout the majority of markets, with supply meeting demand.

“The long-term outlook for Canadian real estate remains strong,” says Sylvain Dansereau, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Quebec. “It has proven so in the past, and it will ring true in the years to come. Canada’s major centres are evolving at a tremendous pace and gaining traction on the world stage. As we look forward, our communities will certainly be more vibrant, more sustainable, while our housing mix focuses on density and diversification. The sheer number of developments planned or underway is staggering. We know the market ebbs and flows—that’s cyclical—but the future for real estate remains quite promising.”

Immigration and population growth will continue to support housing demand moving forward. The Canadian government’s commitment to immigration will hold steady, with the country set to welcome as many as 265,000 immigrants in 2013. The greater focus on economic immigrants is already leading to quicker household formation and homeownership than in years past. These two factors will also support the burgeoning condominium segment—along with Canada’s aging population—while the desire for tangible assets props up the upper-end.