Americans and Albertans alike looking to the mountains for recreation homes

                                                                                                                by  Barb Livingstone


The old truism of “location, location, location” applies as equally to recreation property as it does to a good piece of primary real estate. And it may become even more important in a tight economy.
Alberta’s recreational property market — much of it located in the mountain areas and lakes within an hour and a half of Calgary — continues, at least for now, to be fairly strong.


With the decreasing Canadian dollar, American buyers coming from a healthier economy are once again looking at Alberta property while local buyers may be seeking cottage life closer to home.

Developer Frank Kernick who is currently selling the master-planned community of Spring Creek in Canmore and has just launched phase three of the River’s Bend community in Dead Man’s Flats, has seen half a dozen financial cycles during his 20-year career.


He says while the Canmore area market has been buffeted to some extent by an international market— including Americans for whom Canada is “on sale” right now — there has been continued interest from Calgarians.


After the first shock of the economic downturn, “we had the best June in four or five years. “
Canmore has maintained steady growth, Kernick says, with no oversupply or devaluation of properties.


“Between 2008 and 2010 there was both with a lot of the inventory used as rental properties. We now have a balanced market with an inventory of 250 resale homes versus 500 during the last dip. And the amount of new development is low.”


He cites a second quarter report released by Sotheby’s in July that showed a 28 per cent increase in sales between the first and second quarter of 2015 in the Canmore/Banff area.


In fact, July was the strongest month in sales in the past 13 months, with the average sale price of a townhome of $590,000.


In Spring Creek townhome sales have been steady — four of seven sold at prices of $1.2-million to $1.4-million — and they sold within the last few months.


The community, with everything from family homes to recreational properties to senior living, has seen American sales but also several buyers from the Alberta market taking buyouts and putting them into recreational and retirement properties.


Kernick says he fully expects, over the next year, people will continue considering cashing out to buy a rec property in Canmore


That seems to be supported by a recent national RE/MAX report that says 15.6 per cent of Albertans would consider downsizing their home to buy a recreational property. It also says 74.1 per cent of people in this province would rather spend a long weekend at the cottage over a big city getaway compared with 67.8 per cent nationally.


Don Stengler, project manager at Lamont Land Inc. building CottageClub at Ghost Lake, says sales in the project this year have outpaced last year.


Of the 228 serviced lots, 141 have been sold — more than 40 per cent of them to Calgary residents.
Located 15 kilometres from Cochrane, and about a 45-minute drive from Calgary, Stengler says CottageClub, with its private beach on the 90-foot deep Ghost Lake, is attracting people who never considered owning a cottage.


“They weren’t aware of anything available close to the city— and they don’t want to have to go all the way to B.C.”


Stengler says most buyers have not come from the oil industry, but been a mixture of lawyers, doctors, accountants and business owners.


Older purchasers may have another property in the U.S. and want a lake home where grandkids can gather, and younger affluent purchasers have young kids who want to be able to run into Calgary easily for things like soccer games.


“We are selling our most expensive lots right now — some $500,000 on the lakefront — and for cash.”


Stengler says with the U.S. exchange rate not favouring Canadians, the advantage has switched to buying locally.


Don Campbell, founding partner and senior analyst of the Real Estate Investment Network says REIN’s research has shown the first market to be negatively impacted by an economic slowdown in Calgary are the farther away areas such as the Shuswap and the Invermere Valley in B.C.
He says the longer the downturn continues, the closer the recreational downturn gets to Calgary. “A reverse ripple effect would be a good way to visualize it.”


Meanwhile, Kernick is confident enough in the Canmore area real estate market to launch sales in the first townhome product in the River’s Bend project, in Dead Man’s Flats, five minutes outside of Canmore.


Called Skogan Court, it will include 28 townhomes starting at $499,000 located adjacent to the Bow River and mountain bike and walking trails.

Owning a home in Calgary at market price remains more affordable than it has been on average since the middle of the 1980s, says a new report released Monday by RBC Economics Research.

                                                                                                           Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald


But the latest Housing Trends and Affordability Report said movements in oil prices are likely to exert a stronger influence on the market direction in the short term.


“Alberta’s housing market is still feeling the impact from the oil price shock,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC. “That said, the dust began to settle this spring, and we saw a gradual recovery in confidence, which helped rebalance demand-supply conditions. Home re-sales started to turn around, and sellers no longer rushed to list their properties.”


RBC said prices remained under slight downward pressure for the most part in the second quarter, which helped keep the cost of home ownership in the province on a descending course from the first quarter.


The RBC Housing Affordability measures, which capture the proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a home at market values, fell slightly in Calgary for both two-storey homes, by 0.8 percentage points to 31.9 per cent, and bungalows, by 0.4 percentage points to 32.4 per cent. The measure for condos stayed relatively the same, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 19.5 per cent.


Across the province, the measures fell 0.5 percentage points to 32.5 per cent for two-storey homes and 0.1 percentage points to 31.7 per cent for bungalows, while rising 0.2 percentage points to 20.1 per cent for condos.


In the second quarter, RBC said national affordability measures rose by 0.7 percentage points to 43.3 per cent for bungalows and by 0.4 percentage points to 48.3 per cent for two-storey homes. The measure for condominiums remained unchanged at 27.1 per cent.


RBC’s Housing Affordability measure for the benchmark detached bungalow in Canada’s largest cities was:
Vancouver 88.6 (up 3.0 percentage points);
Toronto 59.4 (up 2.1 percentage points);
Montreal 36.0 (down 1.2 percentage points);
Ottawa 35.4 (unchanged);
Calgary 32.4 (down 0.4 percentage points);
Edmonton 32.5 (down 0.4 percentage points).


“With home resales beginning to turn around and sellers no longer rushing to list their properties in the spring, there was evidence that confidence slowly returned to the Alberta market in the second quarter following the hard blow delivered by the oil price plunge in the previous two quarters,” said the report.


“These developments helped rebalance demand-supply conditions; however, prices still remained under slight downward pressure for the most part in the second quarter, thereby contributing to keep the cost of home ownership on a generally downward course in the province.”
It said recovery in oil prices in the second quarter boosted buyers’ confidence to jump back in play and reduced sellers’ eagerness to get out.


“However, this boost to market sentiment may be short lived if a resumption of the slide in oil prices in the third quarter persists,” it said.

Aspen Woods Single Family Market And Trend Jul. 17- Aug. 16, 2015

MLS Statistics in the Last 30 Days

	Aspen Woods	Calgary Area
Sales	7	925
New Listings	21	1963
Inventory	67	5355
Average Sold DOM	51	45
Sold-to-List Price Ratio	97%	98%
Median Sold Price	$900,000	$484,500
Median New Price	$1,150,000	$519,900
Average Sold PPS	$350	$296
Average New PPS	$389	$321

2012 Census

	Population	Dwellings
Total	5271	2281
Single Family	4405	1503
Duplex	31	11
Apartment	259	271
Town House	564	355
Converted Structure	10	4
Owner Occupied
Occupied Dwellings		1751
Under Construction
Vacant Dwellings		51
Residents Per Dwelling

SOLD 东北区Coventry Hills 独栋两层小楼 $369,900

C4021838 56 Coventry Way NW

WELL MAINTAINED SOUTH FACING TWO STOREY FEATURES 3 BEDROOMS, 1 1/2 BATHS WHICH MAKE THIS AN EXCELLENT STARTER HOME! WIDE OPEN FLOOR PLAN ON THE MAIN LEVEL, NICE SEPARATE ENTRY, WHITE KITCHEN AND DINING AREA. STEP OUT TO A HUGE DECK AND A FULLY FENCED BACKYARD WITH PAVED BACK LANE. UPSTAIRS HAS A LARGE MASTER BEDROOM WITH HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET, 2 OTHER BEDROOMS AND A FULL BATH. WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPS, SCHOOLS AND CARDEL CENTRE.

2015年七月份房地产统计---公寓降价了

市场保持均衡态势，尽管市场吸收消化率减少

---公寓市场新上市供给增加，将会影响价格

 

七月份民宅销售量降低，加上库存可售房源相对稳定，价格和上个月相比，保持不变。

本月共售出1,995 套，和去年同期相比降了14%，比六月份相比降低了17.8%！尽管如此，销售量仍然和十年长线水平吻合。在成交量减少的同时，新上市房源也同样降低，成交量/新上市挂牌量比率为67%，库存房源消化月份为 2.53 个月（两个半月，75天）。

 

“能源行业表现继续低迷，慢慢影响了其它众多行业，包括房地产行业，”卡尔加里房地产局首席经济学家 Ann-Marie Lurie说道。尽管市场吸收率减缓，但是市场状况保持相对稳定，月度市场基准价仍然保持上个月水平$455,400。“人们经常关注房屋价格，事实上，卡尔加里的房价在过去的几年内狂涨。而且，就是最近经济形势不好，这几年涨上去的房价又没有完全降回去。” Lurie继续说道。

虽然市场基准价这两个月份没有多大变化，但是仍然比去年同期降了0.15%，比今年一月份降了1%。这是自2011年以来第一次市场基准价比前一年度降低。（真实不好意思，这里报告里说的很含糊。哪个市场基准价，独立屋市场基准价？连体房屋市场基准价？公寓市场基准价？还是指的总体市场基准价？应该是总体市场基准价，因为个别产品有比前年度降低的并且在报告中提及过。）

 

Lurie讲得较多的是关于公寓产品的市场基准价，比去年同期降了1.61%，降到目前 $293,300，比年初一月份降了近2%！主要由于需求降低，而供给增加。

 

全年至今，公寓新挂牌量降了4.6%，而成交量比年初降了29%，主要由于库存可售房源增加。截止到七月底为止，目前供给消化时间升到 3.77月，而六月份才是3个月。

 

对公寓产品的需求降低了，加上供给增加，就给价格施压，这是第二个月份走低了。

 

房地产局主席Corinne Lyall说卡尔加里的房地产市场不同产品供给会有不同的细微区别。“我们有必要了解这些区别，这样帮助我们理解消费者的不同需求。很多买家期待在目前的市场上捡到大便宜，但并不总会那样。某些区域，供给和需求相对均衡，导致价格相对稳定。”

 

同时，独立屋保持稳定，市场基准价保持在$515,300，但是成交率稍微减缓，整个产品段市场状况相对稳定。“很多消费者对于长线市场还是很乐观的，对于短线波动不是很在意。” 主席 Lyall说道。“消费者应该多花些时间分析他们的生活方式，进一步了解不同社区的表现，然后做出正确的决定。”