Calgary homeowners and buyers left wondering what’s next as once-sizzling housing market succumbs to chills

                                                                                                         Mario Toneguzzi, Postmedia News | February 23, 2015


Calgary’s housing market is the hot topic of conversation these days not only in the city but across the country.

Mortgage firms tighten lending standards in Calgary as housing boom turns sour

The oil that fuelled Calgary’s housing boom has created the conditions for a bust.
Genworth MI Canada Inc., the country’s largest non-government mortgage insurer, said last week it’s preparing for more losses this year and into 2016. Home Capital Group Inc., the largest non-bank mortgage lender, is tightening standards in the oil-rich province of Alberta to reduce the risk to the company of falling housing prices.


“The warning signs are out,” said Gerald Soloway, chief executive officer of Home Capital. “It’s only prudent for everybody who participates in that market to heighten their alertness.” Keep reading.

The once-sizzling real estate sector has cooled tremendously thanks to a precipitous decline in oil prices and that has people, from economists to realtors to homeowners and potential buyers, speculating and wondering what that will do to housing prices.


And there is no lack of opinion on the topic, ranging from forecasts of a small increase in average prices for the year to a 10% or more decline. MLS sales are expected to fall dramatically this year – TD recently said by as much as nearly 50% – with new listings rising at a steep pace.


“There is no surprise that the range is so vast. Trying to forecast an average sale price change . . . in today’s market is impossible,” said Don Campbell, senior analyst with the Real Estate Investment Network. “Why? Simply because the most important variable is not known.


“How long oil will stay under $70 and how confident the oil industry is about it levelling at that number.  Without that knowledge, real estate market price forecasting is mathematically impossible.”
According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, year-to-date up to and including Saturday there have been 1,758 MLS sales, down 37.17% from the same period last year, while new listings have risen by 24.66% to 5,551. The average sale price has dropped by 2.17% to $463,938.