The screeching halt in oil-related spending has raised widespread concern about how badly it will hurt Canada’s economy. But in Calgary, Canada’s oil capital, it hasn’t sunk in — yet — that the oil boom is over.
Restaurants and bars are full, private jets charters are in demand, expensive cars are still big sellers and the Calgary Stampede is banking on the usual level of corporate support. To be sure, it’s not all normal — notoriously expensive parking is easier to find, taxis are not as busy and non-profit groups are worried about their fund raising events.
But the city’s mood is certainly a long way from the dark days of global financial downturn in 2009, when malls were empty; or post the 1980 National Energy Program, when the real estate market was so depressed scores of Calgarians walked away from their homes.
The transition from a super-charged economy to one having to absorb the sudden oil shock has been so quick that decisions made in the executive suites have yet to hit home.
Most know there will be consequences from the oil crash in the next 12 months, but so far lower oil has put more money in Albertans’ pockets, said Kyle Murray, professor of marketing at the University of Alberta’s school of business.
“It’s much too early,” Mr. Murray said. “Most of us haven’t had a pay cut, we haven’t lost that many jobs, we haven’t seen large-scale freezes or big increases in taxes or cuts in services. In fact, the things that have changed right away are mortgage rates are falling and gas that is cheaper, and so far the impact of the so-called crash is it costs us less to live. But that is not likely to last.”
At Teatro, a fine dining establishment in downtown Calgary favoured by the oil crowd, there is concern about corporate spending cuts, but so far “our lunches are busier than ever,” and major events are moving ahead, said Diana Ellison, operations manager for Teatro Restaurant Group.
Adam Legge, president and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, said most of the city’s small businesses “have not experienced much in the way of business impacts yet,” though they are putting plans in place to be ready as the effects trickle through the economy.
The relative calm may have something to do with plenty of experience dealing with commodity price cycles — and a sense that the latest downturn is temporary.
“In Alberta we have all seen this before,” Mr. Legge said. “Many businesses are approaching 2015 with caution, avoiding outlaying unnecessary capital, delaying equipment purchases or working to get the most out of current staff levels rather than increasing their workforce. To be clear, we are taking about prudence, not panic.”
As of last week, oil and gas producers were expected to cut spending in Western Canada by 33%, to $46 billion, from $69 billion in 2014, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. Many also cut dividends and warned about staff cuts. The Bank of Canada has reduced its growth forecast for the coming year to 2.1%, from 2.4%.
The investment pullback is expected to go deeper if oil prices slide further, or if they stay at today’s levels for an extended period. Cenovus Energy Inc. announced a further $700-million cut Wednesday to its already-reduced capital budget for 2015.
from Finacial Post Claudia Cattaneo | January 28, 2015
Thursday, January 29, 2015
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
Home prices fall in Calgary as real estate chill deepens
The Calgary housing market is cooling fast. New sales and listing data for the first half of the month have been released and the numbers aren’t pretty.
The number of homes trading hands has plunged 37 per cent compared to the first two weeks of January 2014, while the number of active listings surged 64 per percent.
There are now more than 4,000 homes on the market in Calgary versus about 2,500 in the same period a year ago.
“Calgary’s high-flying housing market has caught a serious chill,” Sal Guatieri, senior economist at Bank of Montreal, said Monday afternoon.
The price drop “is likely the start of a correction,” the economist said.
Until very recently, Calgary’s housing market was the top performing in the country alongside Toronto and Vancouver. Plunging oil prices have worked quickly to cool things down, however.
MORE: Oil’s collapse sends shiver across Alberta’s real estate market
Oil prices have declined to about $47 (U.S.) a barrel, down more than 55 per cent from their June peak. The plunge has seen investment plans by companies in the energy patch cut back and led to layoffs. Most experts expect oil to remain at their current levels well into the new year.
A report from the Conference Board of Canada last week predicted that Alberta, which accounted for one in three new jobs in Canada last year, will contract in 2015 – an outlook Alberta Premier Jim Prentice disputed.
“More pain lies ahead,” BMO’s Guatieri said of the Alberta real estate market, noting pending sales in the province’s biggest city are also down 53 per cent year over year. “Ouch.”
BMO says economic growth in Alberta won’t contract this year but will slow to a crawl, or 0.5 per cent. That’s a sharp deceleration from the average annual growth rate of about 3.5 per cent in recent years, or the best clip in the country.
Here’s what average home prices looked like in Canada’s Big Three markets versus other major centres as of December.
The number of homes trading hands has plunged 37 per cent compared to the first two weeks of January 2014, while the number of active listings surged 64 per percent.
There are now more than 4,000 homes on the market in Calgary versus about 2,500 in the same period a year ago.
“Calgary’s high-flying housing market has caught a serious chill,” Sal Guatieri, senior economist at Bank of Montreal, said Monday afternoon.
The price drop “is likely the start of a correction,” the economist said.
Until very recently, Calgary’s housing market was the top performing in the country alongside Toronto and Vancouver. Plunging oil prices have worked quickly to cool things down, however.
MORE: Oil’s collapse sends shiver across Alberta’s real estate market
Oil prices have declined to about $47 (U.S.) a barrel, down more than 55 per cent from their June peak. The plunge has seen investment plans by companies in the energy patch cut back and led to layoffs. Most experts expect oil to remain at their current levels well into the new year.
A report from the Conference Board of Canada last week predicted that Alberta, which accounted for one in three new jobs in Canada last year, will contract in 2015 – an outlook Alberta Premier Jim Prentice disputed.
“More pain lies ahead,” BMO’s Guatieri said of the Alberta real estate market, noting pending sales in the province’s biggest city are also down 53 per cent year over year. “Ouch.”
BMO says economic growth in Alberta won’t contract this year but will slow to a crawl, or 0.5 per cent. That’s a sharp deceleration from the average annual growth rate of about 3.5 per cent in recent years, or the best clip in the country.
Here’s what average home prices looked like in Canada’s Big Three markets versus other major centres as of December.
Thursday, January 15, 2015
2015年卡尔加里房地产成交量预计下降4%
今日参加了卡尔加里房地产局的2015房地产行业动态大会，加拿大知名企业家、投资家、电视节目主持人Kelvin O’Leary 到会并给予投资方面的要点分享。
展望2015年，卡尔加里房地产市场将会是个更加均衡发展的市场，意味着买家将会在所有价位段有更多的选择！这对于买家来说是个好消息，但是对于卖家来说就意味着可能不得不调整他们的价格预期、以及对于房源在市场上的天数更加现实些。
一月八日油价跌过50/桶，但是并不是立马就对当天房地产市场有直接牵扯。大家跟多关注的是油价对于投资、失业率、新移民涌入、薪资增长的全面影响！TD银行对于加拿大2015年GDP的增长预期是2.3%, 对2016年的预期是2.2%。
对于想卖房子的卖家来说，请及时把握2015春天的市场。
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
50 Best Neighbourhoods in Calgary in 2014
The ranking of the best 50 neighbourhoods in Calgary as determined by combining survey results and quantitative data collected from various sources from AVENUE magazine:
1. Arbour Lake
2. Beltline3. Brentwood
4. Hillhurst
5. Southwood
6. Lake Bonavista
7. Sunnyside
8. Rosedale
9. Britannia
10. Lakeview
11. Hounsfield Heights/Briar Hill
12. West Springs
13. Inglewood
14. Altadore
15. Kelvin Grove
16. Varsity
17. Silver Springs
18. Bowness
19. Cliff Bungalow
20. North Glenmore Park
21. Bridgeland/Riverside
22. Renfrew
23. Mount Pleasant
24. West Hillhurst
25. Elbow Park
26. Chinook Park
27. Haysboro
28. Mckenzie Towne
29. Sunalta
30. Strathcona Park
31. Lower Mount Royal
32. Aspen Woods
33. Scenic Acres
34. Killarney/Glengarry
35. Montgomery
36. Crescent Heights
37. Scarboro
38. Ramsay
39. Fairview
40. Mission
41. Richmond
42. Shaganappi
43. South Calgary
44. Oakridge
45. Eau Claire
46. Maple Ridge
47. Parkhill
48. Royal Oak
49. Mayland Heights
50. Elboya
10 Calgary Communities with the Best Investment Potential
Avenue's survey asked respondents to tell us if their neighbourhood has high property value. Answers were given on a scale of one (do not agree at all) to seven (agree completely). All responses were compiled to create this list.
1. Montgomery
2. Mayland Heights
3. Thorncliffe
4. Bowness
5. Mount Pleasant
6. Britannia
7. Canyon Meadows
8. Ramsay
9. Oakridge
10. Lake Bonavista
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
9 new schools will be built soon in Calgary
The 55 new schools will be built in the following areas:
Calgary's new schools consist of:
Phase 3 includes $43.2 million in funding to school boards throughout the province to facilitate the funding of the 55 new schools and 20 modernization projects.
The second phase of the project, announced in 2013, consisted of 50 new schools and 70 modernizations. The majority of Phase 2 schools are expected to accept students in 2016.
Five Phase 2 schools are not expected to open as initially scheduled.
31 of the 35 schools announced in 2011's Phase 1 are complete.
from Ryan White, CTV Calgary
- Edmonton – 15 schools
- Calgary – 12 schools
- Grande Prairie – 3 schools
- Okotoks – 2 schools
- Airdrie – 2 schools
- Medicine Hat – 2 schools
- St. Albert – 2 schools
- Beaumont – 2 schools
- Fort McMurray – 2 schools
Calgary's new schools consist of:
- Skyview Ranch - K-9 (Separate)
- Saddle Ridge - Elementary (Public)
- Martindale - Elementary (Public)
- Sherwood - K-9 (Separate)
- Mahogany - Elementary (Separate)
- Southeast Calgary High School (Public)
- Cranston - Middle school (Public)
- Silverado - Elementary (Public)
- West Springs/Cougar Ridge - Middle school (Public)
- Aspen Woods - Elementary (Public)
- Springbank Hill/Discovery Ridge - Elementary/Middle school (Public)
Phase 3 includes $43.2 million in funding to school boards throughout the province to facilitate the funding of the 55 new schools and 20 modernization projects.
The second phase of the project, announced in 2013, consisted of 50 new schools and 70 modernizations. The majority of Phase 2 schools are expected to accept students in 2016.
Five Phase 2 schools are not expected to open as initially scheduled.
31 of the 35 schools announced in 2011's Phase 1 are complete.
from Ryan White, CTV Calgary
Sunday, January 4, 2015
Friday, January 2, 2015
Oil price expected to hold back house price gains in 2015, ReMax says
Slumping oil prices are likely to impact Calgary's real estate market in the coming year, causing home prices to slow their rapid acceleration in Alberta's largest city, according to a report by realtor group Re/Max.
The average sale price of a Calgary home is expected to rise by only three per cent in 2015 to $497,500 after shooting up six per cent in 2014, as more buyers are expected to sit on the sidelines to see if the recent slump in oil prices will make houses cheaper.
"Calgary had a significant run-up over the last few years, so it's becoming more of a balanced market as opposed to a slowing down of the market per se," said Gurinder Sandhu, executive vice-president, Re/Max Ontario Atlantic.
A booming oil sector has helped drive immigration to the city in recent years, fuelling demand for homes. However, crude oil prices have tumbled roughly 35 per cent from their mid-summer highs due to a strong U.S. dollar, weaker demand and a glut of global supply.
The decline in oil prices has already caused Calgary's real estate market to become less "red hot," said Sandhu. But unless low oil prices persist for a prolonged period, home prices in Calgary are unlikely to decline.
"It would have to be a sustained, long-term depression of oil prices to the point where it would have to start impacting jobs and the overall economy, and we're not anticipating that for 2015," he said.
Even the hot markets of Vancouver and Toronto are expected to see a significant slowing in price increases, with the average residential sale price climbing just three per cent in the Great Vancouver area to $863,600 from $834,400 in 2014 when prices went up 7.3 per cent.
Likewise, the Greater Toronto Area is forecast to see a four per cent price increase to an average of $589,100, compared with an 8.3 per cent increase in 2014 to $566,400.
But immigration to major Canadian cities will continue to fuel demand for housing and offset the impact of rising interest rates, which are expected to increase in late 2015, Sandhu said.
Elsewhere across the country, price increase are expected to be below the national average in most cities in Atlantic Canada, with the exception of Moncton, N.B., where the average sale price is forecast to rise six per cent to $187,500.
Average prices in Montreal are forecast to rise one per cent to $332,600 and by 1.5 per cent in Quebec City to $289,800, while prices in Winnipeg and Saskatoon are forecast to remain static at $285,800 and $333,900 respectively, according to the Re/Max outlook.
Regina is expected to see the average price rise four per cent to $346,500, with a similar percentage increase to $389,000 in Edmonton.
Kelowna, B.C., is expected to experience the biggest percentage increase in prices in 2015 among larger Canadian centres, up seven per cent to $458,000 on top of a 7.8 per cent increase in 2014.
by The Canadian Press
The average sale price of a Calgary home is expected to rise by only three per cent in 2015 to $497,500 after shooting up six per cent in 2014, as more buyers are expected to sit on the sidelines to see if the recent slump in oil prices will make houses cheaper.
"Calgary had a significant run-up over the last few years, so it's becoming more of a balanced market as opposed to a slowing down of the market per se," said Gurinder Sandhu, executive vice-president, Re/Max Ontario Atlantic.
A booming oil sector has helped drive immigration to the city in recent years, fuelling demand for homes. However, crude oil prices have tumbled roughly 35 per cent from their mid-summer highs due to a strong U.S. dollar, weaker demand and a glut of global supply.
The decline in oil prices has already caused Calgary's real estate market to become less "red hot," said Sandhu. But unless low oil prices persist for a prolonged period, home prices in Calgary are unlikely to decline.
"It would have to be a sustained, long-term depression of oil prices to the point where it would have to start impacting jobs and the overall economy, and we're not anticipating that for 2015," he said.
Location, location, location
Meanwhile, higher inventory levels in many cities, and in some places a switch to more affordable condominiums, are among factors expected to contribute to significantly smaller price increases across Canadian next year, with averages prices rising a modest 2.5 per cent nationally in 2015 compared with a 6.2 per cent increase in 2014.Even the hot markets of Vancouver and Toronto are expected to see a significant slowing in price increases, with the average residential sale price climbing just three per cent in the Great Vancouver area to $863,600 from $834,400 in 2014 when prices went up 7.3 per cent.
Likewise, the Greater Toronto Area is forecast to see a four per cent price increase to an average of $589,100, compared with an 8.3 per cent increase in 2014 to $566,400.
But immigration to major Canadian cities will continue to fuel demand for housing and offset the impact of rising interest rates, which are expected to increase in late 2015, Sandhu said.
'It's becoming more of a balanced market'- ReMax's Gurinder Sandhu"We're not expecting any dramatic change in housing (prices)," said Sandhu. "We're expecting some moderation, probably a little more balancing out of the housing market."
Elsewhere across the country, price increase are expected to be below the national average in most cities in Atlantic Canada, with the exception of Moncton, N.B., where the average sale price is forecast to rise six per cent to $187,500.
Average prices in Montreal are forecast to rise one per cent to $332,600 and by 1.5 per cent in Quebec City to $289,800, while prices in Winnipeg and Saskatoon are forecast to remain static at $285,800 and $333,900 respectively, according to the Re/Max outlook.
Regina is expected to see the average price rise four per cent to $346,500, with a similar percentage increase to $389,000 in Edmonton.
Kelowna, B.C., is expected to experience the biggest percentage increase in prices in 2015 among larger Canadian centres, up seven per cent to $458,000 on top of a 7.8 per cent increase in 2014.
by The Canadian Press
SOLD #314 208 Riverfront AVE S.W. $375，900
Builder's new construction, possession date in 2017. Right next to Park, Bow River, community park, Chinatown. This unit is East side in NW building, 1 bedroom.
SOLD #401 208 Riverfront AVE S.W. $439,900
Builder's new construction, possession date in 2017. Right next to Park, Bow River, community park, Chinatown. This unit is NW corner, 2 bedrooms.
十二月份房地产统计
年度记录产生，尽管十二月份销售微降
January 02, 2015
对于卡尔加里的公寓市场来说，2014年是个创下纪录的年份。因为成交量创下年度新纪录，尽管民宅十二月份比去年同期降了7.5%。
独立屋市场十二月份共售出708套，比去年同期降了8.3%。同时公寓市场成交量也比去年同期降了6%。统计一起看来还是长线均值。十二月份交易变缓比不是异常现象，因为大家更多关注与节假日的事情。尽管月度销售变缓，但过去的几年来都是这样。总的来说，本月销售比2013年超了9.3%。
公管公寓市场全年共成交4,742 单元，比2013年超了18%。同时，排屋售出3,737单元，比去年全年超了17%。这两个房屋产品都创下了年度记录。经济的变化预期将冷却2015年的房地产市场。2014年12月份的销售活动也许就是这一影响的起点，然而换一个角度来说，也还因为2014年度的销售大大超过了预期。
2014年整个城市售出量、新挂牌量分别为25,664 、36,329套，和去年同期相比涨幅分别为9%、13%，导致库存可售房源增加。民宅市场基准价全年涨幅为9%，独立屋市场保持不变，公管公寓、排屋市场也都和11月份相差无几。
独立屋全年共售出17,185套，比2013年涨了5.5%。独立屋售出比率占总体的67%，是最多的产品段，不过公寓市场成交量的涨幅还是巨大的。
公寓市场活跃成交的部分原因是和产品供给的低价位段有关的，独立屋40万以下的供给越来越少，而公寓市场却有大量房源可选，越来越多的买家转向这一产品段来满足购买需求。
公寓市场的强势需求也还因为供给大量增加，2014年新挂牌量为7,297单元，比2013年超了30%。（终于公寓市场基准价超过了2007年的峰值，很多解套的房主也乘机出手。就是独立屋涨得太厉害了，很多买家买不进去了，只好退而求其次。）
大量新增挂牌帮助缓解了价格走高的压力，对于全年来说，没有调整的公管公寓、排屋市场基准价已经超过了前次2007年的峰值。
2014年度的报告，我会在1月14日以后公布。感谢大家的关注！
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