CALGARY - Calgary continues to far outstrip the rest of the country when it comes to annual price gains in the resale housing market.
The MLS Home Price Index, released Friday by the Canadian Real Estate Association, said prices in the Calgary area in July were up by a whopping 10.48 per cent compared with a year ago. Meanwhile, the national aggregate, comprising 11 centres, saw a year-over-year hike of 5.33 per cent as sales rose to their highest level since March 2010.
The closest centre to Calgary’s annual spike was Toronto which recorded a jump of 7.88 per cent.
“As market conditions move toward more balanced conditions, it is causing prices to level off. However, due to strong gains in the first half of the year, even with prices levelling off, year-over-year gains remain at higher levels,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, the Calgary Real Estate Board’s chief economist.
Over the past three years, Calgary also has the highest rate of price growth at 25.01 per cent compared with 12.52 per cent nationally. And over five years, Calgary’s 28.89 per cent spike is second only to Toronto’s 40.48 per cent increase while it is 26.89 per cent across the country.
Don Campbell, senior analyst with the Real Estate Investment Network, said it takes 18 months for immigration and population growth to begin to affect the resale and new housing markets. Also, a demand/supply imbalance has contributed to higher prices.
He said the housing market is being affected by tightness in rental vacancy and lack of new supply.
“So the record population growth we witnessed last year is now being felt,” he said.
“Combine this with a general decrease in available single-family home building lots and this is keeping the inventory tighter than normal, thus adding upward value pressure on resale market.”
The number of homes sold nationally through the MLS systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations rose to 48,000 in July - a 7.2 per cent hike from a year ago.
Calgary area sales of 3,177 were 6.8 per cent higher and Alberta sales of 7,194 were up 5.0 per cent.
“Low mortgage interest rates continue to bolster home sales activity,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, in a news release. “With the Bank of Canada widely expected to hold interest rates steady until next year, home purchase financing will remain attractive over the second half 2014 and continue to support economic growth while waiting for Canadian exports and investment to improve.”
In terms of average MLS sale prices, Calgary saw a rise of 5.2 per cent year-over-year to $460,790 while the increase was 4.2 per cent in Alberta to $395,552 and 5.0 per cent across the country to $401,585.
Leslie Preston, economist with TD Economics, said low interest rates are continuing to fuel the Canadian housing market into the summer.
“The renewed momentum in Canada’s housing market in recent months represents both a bounce back from weather-related weakness over the winter months and a response to lower mortgage rates,” explained Preston. “Potential buyers who may have sat on the sidelines last year as interest rates rose, are being enticed back to the market by lower interest rates. Meanwhile, a strengthening in economic growth continues to support the fundamental demand in the housing market.
“However, existing home prices . . . are on track to outstrip income growth for a second straight year in 2014, which adds to concerns about an already-overpriced market. Affordability, even at low interest rates, has become an obstacle in many markets. This contributes to our view that the Canadian housing market will cool later this year and into 2015 as interest rates are likely to nudge higher. Another factor which is expected to weigh on prices is the supply growth in the pipeline due to the record number of new homes that are under construction in many markets.”
By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald
Saturday, August 16, 2014
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
SOLD 西南区Evergreen南向walkout地下室 $559,900
25 Everbrook DR S.W. C3623766
Welcome to your new home at 25 Everbrook Drive SW which is several minutes walking distance to Fish Creek Park with lots of creeks. This former show house has been taken good care by the couple with no kids and animals. It shows like new. The main level has a private den, laundry area, great room with stone faced gas fireplace, large kitchen with numerous maple wood cabinets, breakfast nook leading to the large rear deck. Upstairs, the massive master retreat has a huge walk-in closet, ideal for any fashionista, a massive soaker tub, and a stand-up shower. The remaining 2 bedrooms and full bath are perfect for children or any house guest. Completing the upper floor is an oversized bonus room, and would be best for a movie or games space. The unfinished basement awaits your personal touch. Did I mention built-in speaker system, air-conditioning system?! Enjoy your new home today!
Calgary commercial real estate has best returns in Canada, Total return of 11.1%
CALGARY - The REALpac/IPD Canada Quarterly Property Index says Calgary had the best return on commercial real estate with a total return of 11.1 per cent for the year ending June 30.
The Canadian average was 9.5 per cent.
Other top performing Canadian centres included Edmonton at 10.8 per cent and Toronto at 10.1 per cent.
However, the annual returns - combining income growth and capital growth - were down from last year when Calgary experienced a 16.7 per cent hike followed by Edmonton at 15.6 per cent. The total return for all Canadian commercial real estate property was 13.3 per cent in 2013.
Over this past year, the report said Canadian real estate under performed public equities at 23.7 per cent (MSCI Canada Index), but outperformed bonds at 5.1 per cent (J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index seven to 10 years) and inflation at 2.4 per cent (Statistics Canada).
“While the annual rate of return at 9.5 per cent remains robust – and still indicates that capital values are rising across all four real estate sectors – the rate of growth over the past two quarters has eased,” said Simon Fairchild, executive director at IPD.
The report said the retail sector across the country continues to outperform other property types with an annual return to June of 11.8 per cent. The office sector was 7.7 per cent, residential was 8.1 per cent and industrial property was 8.6 per cent.
The REALpac/IPD Canada Quarterly Property Index measures over 2,343 institutional grade properties across Canada valued at $121.3 billion as of June 30, 2014.
By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald
The Canadian average was 9.5 per cent.
Other top performing Canadian centres included Edmonton at 10.8 per cent and Toronto at 10.1 per cent.
However, the annual returns - combining income growth and capital growth - were down from last year when Calgary experienced a 16.7 per cent hike followed by Edmonton at 15.6 per cent. The total return for all Canadian commercial real estate property was 13.3 per cent in 2013.
Over this past year, the report said Canadian real estate under performed public equities at 23.7 per cent (MSCI Canada Index), but outperformed bonds at 5.1 per cent (J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index seven to 10 years) and inflation at 2.4 per cent (Statistics Canada).
“While the annual rate of return at 9.5 per cent remains robust – and still indicates that capital values are rising across all four real estate sectors – the rate of growth over the past two quarters has eased,” said Simon Fairchild, executive director at IPD.
The report said the retail sector across the country continues to outperform other property types with an annual return to June of 11.8 per cent. The office sector was 7.7 per cent, residential was 8.1 per cent and industrial property was 8.6 per cent.
The REALpac/IPD Canada Quarterly Property Index measures over 2,343 institutional grade properties across Canada valued at $121.3 billion as of June 30, 2014.
By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
Albertans see household debt soar as home prices surge
Consumers in Alberta and British Columbia are taking on a surprising amount of debt, much of which stems from high home prices.
And there are signs that Canadians are placing less of an emphasis on saving, with reasonably healthy stock markets, rising home prices and low interest rates bolstering their confidence.
The result of these trends is that consumers have continued to fuel the country’s economy at a time when corporations are not spending as much as policy-makers would like. But some economists are now questioning whether consumers will be able to shoulder the economic load for much longer.
At the national level the pace of household debt accumulation is the slowest it’s been since 1995 and the slowest it has been in any non-recessionary period over the last 40 years, according to CIBC. That’s been welcome news for officials in Ottawa who have been concerned about consumer debt levels.
But the average level of household debt in Alberta jumped to $124,838 this year, from $89,026 last year, according to a new study conducted by Pollara for Bank of Montreal. And the average level in B.C. rose to $99,834 from $79,089.
“Policy-makers have been worried about Canadian household debt for some time and it appears that for most households they are getting the message and slowing their rate of borrowing, but in Alberta that doesn’t appear to be the case,” said BMO economist Sal Guatieri. “It looks like mortgage debt, in particular, is rising quite rapidly.”
Ontarians, in contrast, have been cutting back, with average household debt levels falling to $67,507 this year, down from $76,970 last year.
Home prices in Alberta have risen at a fast pace, pushing consumers to take on larger mortgages.
But Alberta’s economy has been on a roll, and it’s B.C. that Mr. Guatieri said he found particularly surprising. “Number one, we’re very surprised that Vancouver’s housing market has come back so quickly,” he said in an interview. “House prices are back to their record highs after falling for most of 2012 and 2013. And it looks like households are building up their mortgage debt again in the province to get into the housing market.”
Vancouver’s real estate board said on Tuesday that 3,061 homes changed hands in and around the city during July. That was up 3.9 per cent from a year earlier, and slightly higher than the 10-year average for the month.
The benchmark price of a home (a measure that attempts to capture the price of a “typical” house, because averages can be skewed by the high and low ends of the market) stood at $628,600, up 4.4 per cent from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, realtors in Calgary say there is some evidence that the pace of home price growth is stalling as more supply comes onto the market. The benchmark price of a single-family home was $511,600 in July, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board. That was up 10.8 per cent from a year earlier, but was only a little bit higher than it had been two months earlier.
“Following two years of annual increases and several months of monthly gains that exceeded 1 per cent, unadjusted benchmark prices appear to be levelling off,” Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist at Calgary’s real estate board, stated in a press release.
While house prices have also been rising in Toronto, the city’s large and growing condo market has not seen nearly the same degree of price appreciation and some other parts of Ontario, such as Ottawa, have had more lacklustre housing markets.
The debt levels that Albertans are accumulating are not too concerning yet, because that province has the strongest labour market and highest economic growth rate in the country, said Laura Cooper, an economist at Royal Bank of Canada.
“Households are vulnerable, but as long as they have rising incomes and strong economic growth it’s not as much of a concern,” she said. The vulnerability would become an issue if there was a sudden rise in either unemployment or interest rates, but neither is expected at the moment, she said in an interview.
Economists at CIBC pointed out in a research note Tuesday that Canada’s economic growth isn’t going exactly as policy-makers had planned.
“For the last couple of years, the narrative was that an exhausted and heavily indebted consumer would take a break, and a cash-rich corporate Canada would boost capital spending and take the reins of the Canadian economy,” they wrote. But consumers have continued to carry the economy.
While the pace of debt accumulation has slowed, savings rates have also petered out. “Sanguine Canadians have stabilized their savings rates at around 5 per cent [in the first quarter of this year], a drop from levels seen in early 2013,” the CIBC report said.
“How long can consumers hold the fort? Not long,” they concluded. “Confidence has started to slip, and the savings rate is vulnerable to a climb ahead.”
Editor's Note: An earlier version of this article said the number of Canadians holding mortgage debt was 13 per cent last year. In fact, 13 per cent represents the increase from last year in the number of Canadians holding mortgage debt.
Tara Perkins - REAL ESTATE REPORTER
And there are signs that Canadians are placing less of an emphasis on saving, with reasonably healthy stock markets, rising home prices and low interest rates bolstering their confidence.
The result of these trends is that consumers have continued to fuel the country’s economy at a time when corporations are not spending as much as policy-makers would like. But some economists are now questioning whether consumers will be able to shoulder the economic load for much longer.
At the national level the pace of household debt accumulation is the slowest it’s been since 1995 and the slowest it has been in any non-recessionary period over the last 40 years, according to CIBC. That’s been welcome news for officials in Ottawa who have been concerned about consumer debt levels.
But the average level of household debt in Alberta jumped to $124,838 this year, from $89,026 last year, according to a new study conducted by Pollara for Bank of Montreal. And the average level in B.C. rose to $99,834 from $79,089.
“Policy-makers have been worried about Canadian household debt for some time and it appears that for most households they are getting the message and slowing their rate of borrowing, but in Alberta that doesn’t appear to be the case,” said BMO economist Sal Guatieri. “It looks like mortgage debt, in particular, is rising quite rapidly.”
Ontarians, in contrast, have been cutting back, with average household debt levels falling to $67,507 this year, down from $76,970 last year.
Home prices in Alberta have risen at a fast pace, pushing consumers to take on larger mortgages.
But Alberta’s economy has been on a roll, and it’s B.C. that Mr. Guatieri said he found particularly surprising. “Number one, we’re very surprised that Vancouver’s housing market has come back so quickly,” he said in an interview. “House prices are back to their record highs after falling for most of 2012 and 2013. And it looks like households are building up their mortgage debt again in the province to get into the housing market.”
Vancouver’s real estate board said on Tuesday that 3,061 homes changed hands in and around the city during July. That was up 3.9 per cent from a year earlier, and slightly higher than the 10-year average for the month.
The benchmark price of a home (a measure that attempts to capture the price of a “typical” house, because averages can be skewed by the high and low ends of the market) stood at $628,600, up 4.4 per cent from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, realtors in Calgary say there is some evidence that the pace of home price growth is stalling as more supply comes onto the market. The benchmark price of a single-family home was $511,600 in July, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board. That was up 10.8 per cent from a year earlier, but was only a little bit higher than it had been two months earlier.
“Following two years of annual increases and several months of monthly gains that exceeded 1 per cent, unadjusted benchmark prices appear to be levelling off,” Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist at Calgary’s real estate board, stated in a press release.
While house prices have also been rising in Toronto, the city’s large and growing condo market has not seen nearly the same degree of price appreciation and some other parts of Ontario, such as Ottawa, have had more lacklustre housing markets.
The debt levels that Albertans are accumulating are not too concerning yet, because that province has the strongest labour market and highest economic growth rate in the country, said Laura Cooper, an economist at Royal Bank of Canada.
“Households are vulnerable, but as long as they have rising incomes and strong economic growth it’s not as much of a concern,” she said. The vulnerability would become an issue if there was a sudden rise in either unemployment or interest rates, but neither is expected at the moment, she said in an interview.
Economists at CIBC pointed out in a research note Tuesday that Canada’s economic growth isn’t going exactly as policy-makers had planned.
“For the last couple of years, the narrative was that an exhausted and heavily indebted consumer would take a break, and a cash-rich corporate Canada would boost capital spending and take the reins of the Canadian economy,” they wrote. But consumers have continued to carry the economy.
While the pace of debt accumulation has slowed, savings rates have also petered out. “Sanguine Canadians have stabilized their savings rates at around 5 per cent [in the first quarter of this year], a drop from levels seen in early 2013,” the CIBC report said.
“How long can consumers hold the fort? Not long,” they concluded. “Confidence has started to slip, and the savings rate is vulnerable to a climb ahead.”
Editor's Note: An earlier version of this article said the number of Canadians holding mortgage debt was 13 per cent last year. In fact, 13 per cent represents the increase from last year in the number of Canadians holding mortgage debt.
Tara Perkins - REAL ESTATE REPORTER
The Globe and Mail (includes correction)
Friday, August 1, 2014
SOLD Mount Royal Bungalow $558,000
3220 14 ST S.W. C3609742
LOCATED IN THE HEART OF THE CITY ON A HUGE 60\'X120X LOT. FEW MINUTES DRIVE TO DOWNTOWN & Western Canada High School. IT FEATURES LARGE LIVING ROOM, FORMAL DINING ROOM, HUGE MASTER BEDROOM facing big back yard, MAIN FLOOR DEN CAN BE EASILY CONVERTED TO SECOND BEDROOM, DEVELOPED BASEMENT WITH LARGE FAMILY ROOM AND BEDROOM, DOUBLE GARAGE, HUGE BACK AND SIDE YARD, NEWER ROOF SHINGLES (2007) AND NEWER FURNACE. IT IS VERY CONVENIENTLY LOCATED CLOSE TO PARKS, PUBLIC LIBRARY, PUBLIC TRANSIT, SHOPPING, AND DINING. EASY TO SHOW; PLEASE CALL LISTING REALTOR FOR ALL SHOWINGS.
七月份房地产市场统计
房地产市场向均衡市场发展
七月份新挂牌量明显超出了成交量的涨幅，使得可售房源以两位数值增长。
与去年七月份成交活跃的同一市场相比（洪水过后），今年七月份成交量的增幅和上半年总共加起来两位数值的增长有戏剧性的不同，成交量几乎高于七月份长线均值的19%。
本月全部房地产新挂牌量为3,219 套，比去年同期超出 18 %。挂牌量明显超出成交房源，使得库存可售房源增至 4,659 套，比去年同期高出14 %。
对于大量的买家来说，更多的选择是个再好不过的消息了。然而，这些新增挂牌量出现在挂牌量持续下降了三年之后。伴随着提升的可售房源，其它指标支撑着市场向更均衡的市场发展。
独立屋市场基准价保持不变在$511,600，仅比前几个月份高出一点，但是比去年七月份的$461,600高出10.8 %。伴随着2012、2013持续两年的增长，以及好几个月份的超出1%的增幅，基本保持不变的市场基准价似乎保持在稳定的水平。这和我们预期的一样，就是市场向更加均衡的方向发展。
独立屋本月共售出1,553套，比去年洪水过后降低了1.3%，但是从年初至今还是涨了 8.3%。在独立屋销售总体保持高于长线趋势的情况下，我们可以看出低于40万的挂牌量、成交量是少之甚少的。
由于独立屋低价位段的选择越来越少，买家正转向排屋、公寓市场来。从年初至今共管公寓、排屋成交量涨幅分别为21%、19%。新挂牌量明显高出成交量，尤其是共管公寓部分，从而提升了库存可售房源量。对于买家来说，越来越多的选择帮助缓解了市场基准价上扬的压力。共管公寓、排屋市场基准价和上个月相比没有什么变化。尽管七月份增长放缓，但是从年初至今公寓部分价格还是增长了11%，共管公寓、排屋市场基准价分别为 $298,100 和 $327,000。
卡尔加里的房地产市场显示了异常的销售火旺、以及价格涨幅，这些都是经济发展支撑房地产市场的反应，包括新增移民人口、就业率的提升、薪资增长，再就是很不错的贷款利率。（我就选了TD两年2.34%的利率）。
Calgary Real Estate Report - July
| Market moves toward balanced conditions |
Growth in new listings outpace sales growth in July, supporting double-digit inventory gains Calgary, Aug. 1, 2014 – Residential sales this month totaled 2,336 units, a record level for July activity. However, year-over-year sales growth slowed to 3.18 per cent. “While July’s sales growth seems like a dramatic departure from the double-digit gains recorded in the first half of this year, it is in comparison to exceptionally strong sales during the same period last year,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, noting July sales this year are nearly 19 per cent above long-term averages for the month. New listings in July totaled 3,219 units, an 18 per cent increase over the previous year. The rise outpaced sales growth during the month, pushing inventory to 4,659 units, nearly 14 per cent higher than July 2013 levels. “More selection is welcome news for many potential purchasers. However, improving supply levels have only come after nearly three consecutive years of declines,” said CREB® president Bill Kirk. “Along with improving inventories, other indicators support the notion that market conditions are moving toward more sustainable levels.” Single-family unadjusted benchmark prices totaled $511,600 in July, just above May figures, but 10.8 per cent higher than $461,600 in July 2013. “Following two years of annual increases and several months of monthly gains that exceeded one per cent, unadjusted benchmark prices appear to be leveling off,” said Lurie. “This fits with our expectations as the market moves into more balanced territory.” Single-family sales totaled 1,553 units in July, a 1.3 per cent decline compared to the same period in 2013 and a 8.3 per cent increase year-to-date. While overall single-family sales remain higher than long-term trends for this month, the year-over-year monthly decline reflects fewer sales and listings in properties priced under $400,000. “With declining choices in the lower-priced single-family market sector, consumers are considering both condominium apartment and townhouse segments,” said Kirk. Year-to-date condominium apartment and townhouse sales increased by 21 and 19 per cent, respectively. New listing growth far outpaced sales growth, particularly in the apartment sector, thus boosting inventory levels. For buyers, more choice has helped ease some of the upward pressure on benchmark prices. Unadjusted prices in both apartment and townhouse-style condominiums were similar to levels recorded the previous month. Despite slower monthly gains, year-over-year price growth grew by 11 per cent in the condominium sector. Benchmark prices for apartment and townhouse-style condominiums in July totaled $298,100 and $327,000, respectively. “Calgary’s housing market continues to demonstrate exceptional levels of sales, and strong year-over-year price gains,” said Lurie. “This is a reflection of the economic factors supporting this market, including gains in net migration, employment, wage growth and favourable lending rates.” The monthly statistics package is available here. |
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