房价持续升温，买家仍然入市

The Canadian Press     Published Tuesday, August 27, 2013

OTTAWA -- Home ownership has become less affordable for the average Canadian, but that hasn't stopped many from jumping into what may already be an overpriced market, suggests a new report from the Royal Bank.

Royal Bank says its housing affordability index reversed course in the second quarter of this year in two of the three categories it measures -- bungalows and two-storey homes -- after generally improving over the past year.

That means that on average, Canadians were paying more of the pre-tax income to service their homes compared to the first quarter of the year, although the index is still down from a year ago.
                          
The quarterly increase was not spectacular -- 0.3 points to 42.7 per cent on a detached bungalow and 0.4 points to 48.4 per cent on a standard two-storey home. The index on a condo was unchanged at 27.9 per cent.

As with past samplings, Vancouver and Toronto continue to stand out as the least affordable cities. During the second quarter, Vancouver's affordability reading rose 2.2 points to 82.1 on a detached bungalow, while Toronto's edged up half a point to 54.5.

By contrast, other major municipalities were far more tame and below the national average. On a detached bungalow, Montreal slid slightly to 38.1 per cent, Ottawa was mildly higher at 37.1, Edmonton was at 34.0 despite a 1.8 point gain, and Calgary held steady at 33.0.

The affordability index measures the cost of servicing a home, including mortgage payments, utilities and taxes, in relation to a household's pre-tax income. The higher the reading, the less affordable is a home to a particular family.

RBC chief economist Craig Wright noted that the deterioration in affordability did not scare many Canadians from jumping feet first into the housing market during the second quarter as sales actually surged by 6.4 per cent, following a general slowdown since last summer's introduction of stiffer mortgage lending rules.

"We saw a bit of a bounce-back in prices," said Wright. "We had a series of regulatory changes, but now it looks like the market has adjusted and now seems to be recovering somewhat."

The report is for the April to June period and does not capture this month's announced increases of between 0.1 and 0.2 per cent -- 10 or 20 basis points-- in posted mortgage rates at several major banks. A 20-basis point hike in rates will increase monthly payments up to $100 on a typical $500,000 mortgage.

"Mortgage rates will be the next challenge," Wright added. "The move upward we've seen probably suggests that affordability will be a little more challenging (in the third quarter)."

But he noted that despite what has been a hot housing market in Canada, with prices hitting new highs almost monthly, affordability remains close to historic levels in part because interest rates are so low.

The Bank of Canada has long warned Canadians to take a forward-looking approach to home ownership and calculate what will happen to monthly payments once interest rates begin to rise, which it says is inevitable.

But Wright said the situation of affordability is more complex than simply interest rates. A sharp spike in rates will cause problems, yet most, including the Bank of Canada, currently anticipate the increases will be modest and gradual and won't likely start occurring until late next year. The central bank has kept its short-term trendsetting rate at one per cent for now.

As well, Wright points out that the bank will likely only start a monetary policy tightening phase once the economy starts improving, so the higher rates might be offset by an improvement in employment and in incomes, which could offset the negative impact on household finances. Higher rates might also lead to lower real estate prices, which also improves affordability.

2nd quarter Aspen Woods Sales report

卡尔加里房地产引领全国市场，目前已比去年同期涨7%

By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald August 15, 2013


Calgary led the country in July with the best year-over-year price growth in the resale housing market.

The Canadian Real Estate Association’s MLS Home Price Index, released Thursday, indicated prices in Calgary were up 6.79 per cent — more than doubling the national aggregate of 2.66 per cent price growth.

The index measures the rate at which housing prices change over time taking into account the type of homes sold. Nine major Canadian centres are surveyed.

“Our market is trending towards a selling market. Listing inventory is 20 per cent lower than this time last year and pricing is approximately seven per cent higher overall,” said Tanya Eklund, with RE/MAX Real Estate (Central) in Calgary. “The Calgary floods created a short-term surge in house purchases in certain areas. People who could afford to buy have purchased, so their families were not displaced. Due to the very low vacancy rate, rental inflation and difficulty in finding rental accommodation, this made some consumers turn to purchasing instead of renting.

“We are seeing many inner-city communities flourish with sales, however I am seeing certain suburb markets higher in inventory in the plus $1 million, so sales have not been as abundant as other communities closer to the interior of the city. Overall, it appears to be a great time to sell. Buyers have less time to think about their purchases with hopes of not losing out on their ideal home. I am confident we will continue to see a stable real estate market as we enter into the fall.”
CREA stats indicated Calgary MLS sales in July of 2,976 were up 18.9 per cent from last year while the average sale price jumped by 7.0 per cent to $438,192.

Across Canada, sales were up by 9.4 per cent to 44,829 units and the average price rose by 8.4 per cent to $382,373.

In Alberta, transactions increased by 17.8 per cent to 6,853 units while the average price was up by 4.3 per cent to $379,696.
“Canadian home sales have staged a bit of a recovery in recent months after having declined in the wake of tightened mortgage rules and lending guidelines last year, but the numbers for July suggest that national activity is levelling off at what might best be described as average levels,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist. “Sales dropped sharply in August last year, so we may see some year-over-year increases in sales and average prices next month that would reflect weakness in the rear view mirror.”

Sales and prices in Calgary are continuing their upward trend in August. According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, month-to-date until Wednesday, total MLS sales of 945 were 32.17 per cent higher than the same period last year and the average sale price was up 13 per cent to $455,688.
In another report released Thursday, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. forecast MLS sales in the Calgary census metropolitan area to rise to 27,800 transactions this year from 26,634 in 2012. Sales are expected to jump to 28,300 in 2014.

The agency forecast the average MLS sale price in the Calgary region to rise from $412,315 in 2012 to $435,000 in 2013 and to $445,000 in 2014.

Nationally, the CMHC’s point forecast is for MLS sales across Canada to decline from 453,372 in 2012 to 448,900 this year and then rise to 467,600 in 2014.
The national average sale price is expected to see year-over-year growth of 2.7 per cent this year to $374,800 followed by an increase of 2.1 per cent in 2014 to $382,800.

最新贷款政策--- CMHC cools mortgage market with new cap for banks !!!

from CBC news on Aug. 6, 2013

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is putting a cap on the amount of mortgage-backed securities sold by banks that it is willing to guarantee.
A spokesperson with CMHC confirmed media reports Monday that the national housing agency will, effective immediately, limit banks and other mortgage lenders to $350 million worth of new mortgage-backed securities per month. The decision comes in the wake of "unexpected demand" for the guarantees, a spokeswoman for CMHC said in an emailed statement.

Under the National Housing Act Mortgage-Backed Securities (NHA MBS) program, banks have been able to securitize large portions of the mortgages they carry on their books. Because those securities are backed by CMHC, not the banks themselves, they're able to go out and lend that freed-up money to new homebuyers at lower prices, which adds fuel to Canada's housing fire.

Earlier this year, Ottawa announced it would limit the amount of those mortgage-backed securities that it would guarantee to $85 billion this year. That's a rise from from $76 billion in 2012.
But by the end of July, barely over halfway through the year, the banks had already tapped the program for as much as $66 billion, hence the need for the cap to stay under the annual limit.
CMHC said Monday no one lender will get guarantees for more than $350 million worth of securities per month, from now on.

The move takes some of the air out of the housing market by forcing banks and other lenders to be responsible for the risk of mortgage defaults, instead of being able to pass that risk on to government and taxpayers via the CMHC.

It's the latest move from a government that's getting increasingly vigilant about its attempts to cool down the housing market. After loosening rules to allow for no-money-down mortgages of more than 40 years a half-decade ago, the federal government has taken multiple steps to ratchet those rules tighter again, limiting new mortgages to no longer than 25 years, and requiring a minimum down payment of five per cent of the value of the home.

Those moves were targeted directly at the homebuying public. But moves such as the one revealed Monday target the banks themselves, by effectively limiting the amount of money they have at their disposal to lend out in mortgages.

In the spring, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty went as far as publicly criticizing a number of lenders for encouraging reckless spending by offering mortgages with historically low interest rates.
The last time CMHC disclosed its data, the housing agency had $562.6 billion worth of mortgages on its books, getting close to its legally mandated limit of $600 billion.

SOLD ---西北区 West Hillhurst 新建连体屋 $859,900

                                         

                                     C3570026 2416 1 AV NW

Incredible Value!!! 3121 total sq ft of living space. Main floor has hardwood thru out, Living room w/gas Fireplace, Office/Den, Combo Great Rm and Kitchen with peninsula. Crafted cabinetry,slab granite surfaces. 2nd floor has Master with huge closet capacity, 5 pce ensuite with skylite, 2nd +3rd bedrm, 4pce bath and laundry. Bonus third story has spacious Loft for many possibilities(Gym,Theater,Office,Guest)Plus 2 pie bath! Lower has nth bdrm,Family Rm,4pce bath and lots of storage.Quality by seasoned builder of many years!RI slab heat,Vacuum System,insulated&drywalled double garage.Great inner city location and access to Public Transit,Downtown,river paths,UofC,Foothills+children Hospitals! Impossible to replace at this price!

SOLD 西北区 Ranchlands 排屋 $239,900

                                  
                           C3576436 # 81 6915 RANCHVIEW DR NW

This is a great opportunity to own in this well managed complex in the heart of Ranchlands. Walk to the elementary school just across the street. Parking is right outside the door, stall 188. Visitor parking is just to the east. Check with the Board for a second parking spot at a nominal fee. This nicely laid-out and cozy unit is waiting for you! The main floor has a bright and functional kitchen, a welcoming family room, a good sized dining room and a half-bath by the entry. Upstairs are three bedrooms, and a full bathroom. The basement has a large, comfortable rec. Room. The furnace room is set up with storage and laundry. You will feel at home here right away!... MAKE IT YOURS!

2013年七月份房地产市场统计

七月份销售增长强劲

------ 缩紧的市场供给，使得价格保持上扬走势

 （近期石油行业的大幅裁员，我不知这种上扬能够保持多久？且看地产局分析…）

Calgary, 八月一日, 2013 – 本月民宅共售出2,268 套，比去年同期涨幅17%，比今年初涨了6%！！！

6月20日的罕见洪水天灾使得销售更加如火如荼，很多购买交易和被迫迁离的租客、另寻住址的房主息息相关。 但是更多的买家其实已经在市场上寻觅了很久，不过加快了购买决定而已，因为不确定日渐紧俏的供给对价格的影响究竟有多大。

 卡尔加里的房地产市场绝对是卖方市场了，支撑了价格走高。尽管本月价格涨幅比去年同期几乎高近7%，但是整个市场基准价却稳稳保持在$414,100。（突破需要由经济支撑啊！）

很多卖家一直等候着价格恢复，好挂牌。目前的市场状况已经刺激挂牌量上扬了，独立屋本月售出1,575套，比去年同期涨14 %。全年累计独立屋售出套数涨幅仅为2.5%。尽管新挂牌数量涨至 1,958套，但并不足已缓解市场供给压力。总体来讲，目前在售房源2,917套，已经比2012年最低挂牌量低了近20%。

本月公寓共售出693 单元，比去年同期涨26%，全年累计成交量涨幅为16%！

公寓成交量狂增和独立屋市场息息相关，因为公寓具有可承受的价位段。截至目前为止，公寓市场40万以内的新挂牌房源远远多于独立屋。

买家购买能承受房源的主要考虑因素为社区、房屋产品本身、价格等等。尽管很多社区有买家预算内的房源，但是部分买家更倾向于在喜欢的社区内、同样预算内买套公寓，或者买套入住前少量升级投入的房子。

对公寓需求的增长就带动了其攻击的吃紧，本于共管公寓、排屋在售房源分别下降至 768 、407 单元。紧俏的供给支撑了房地产的各个领域产品，尽管总体价格保持不变，但是公寓市场是价格涨幅最大的部分。本月公寓市场基准价为$267,600，比六月份涨1.4%、比去年同期涨近8%。独立屋及排屋市场基准价分别为 $461,600 、 $294,500 。

洪水将会影响受灾区域的销售、挂牌、价格走势，但是其对整个房地产二手房市场的影响在日后几个月将会慢慢消逝。本月销售增长比年初至今的走势强劲，也高过了长线平均走势。然而，如果新挂牌量继续提高，将会缓解紧张的市场状况。