Canadian housing soft landing, not crash

OTTAWA – There are fresh signs of cooling in the Canadian housing market, but analysts say fears of a major crash have yet to materialize.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Tuesday that the pace of housing starts crept up slightly last month from February, despite a drop in the number of single dwellings begun in some urban markets.
Starts in March totalled 12,273 or 184,028 annualized, just slightly higher than in February but down 13.6 per cent from a year ago.

Simultaneously, Statistics Canada released a report on building permits that showed future building intentions for residential construction fell 7.2 per cent in February to $3.6 billion.
Both numbers were bad news for the Canadian economy as a whole, suggesting the key housing market will be a net drag on growth during the quarter and likely in the near term as starts and sales come off higher levels of previous years.

But analysts added that the recent slow descent from very high altitudes in a sector that some calculate is overpriced by as much as 25 per cent and overbuilt — especially in Vancouver and Toronto — is actually what the doctor ordered and may hold off a punitive collapse.
“The slowdown suggests we are not crashing, people are not panicking, especially condo builders,” said Benjamin Tal, a senior economist with CIBC World Markets.

“All the indicators we are seeing as of today, in the resale market and in the housing start market, suggest this is a market that is slowing softly. We should be in the neighbourhood of 170,000 to 180,000 in housing starts and we should be getting there.”

Tal said demographics dictate that builders should be erecting about 180,000 new units a year in order to keep the market in equilibrium. At 184,000, that is still too high and he predicts starts will eventually slow to about 170,000 to soak up excess supply.

Canada’s housing market, which had been among the world’s hottest following the recession, began to slow at about this time last year and braked sharply after Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tightened mortgage rules in July. The policy move, which made it more difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market, was widely praised at the time as necessary to avoid a U.S.-light housing crash that would be crippling to the economy.

Recently, Flaherty has upbraided lenders from cutting mortgage rates too far and undercutting his policy objectives, succeeding in having both the Bank of Montreal and the Manulife reverse mortgage rate cuts.

Arlene Kish of IHS Global Insight said she expected residential construction to remain subdued for the rest of the year, but added that it has become “increasingly unlikely there will be any kind of precipitous collapse in new home building activity.”

A major ballast for the market is that despite Flaherty’s recent efforts, mortgage rates remain at historic lows, and affordability — the measure of household disposable income in relation to home ownership costs — remains near historic levels.

Tal said the cooling, if it continues for a year so, will prepare the market for the eventual squeeze when interest rates start rising, likely in 2014.

“We’ve never seen a crash without a trigger. In 1990-91, the trigger was a huge increase in interest rates. In the U.S., the trigger was an increase in interest rates and the sub-prime shock,” he explained.
“So any slowing we are doing now without those triggers is a bonus because it means we will be more ready to absorb interest rates rising.”

The March start numbers show the downturn was all in urban construction, which dipped slipped 2.7 per cent to 157,217 as single-unit construction fell 6.6 per cent and multiples by 0.1 per cent. By contrast, rural starts had their best month in three years, increasing 24 per cent to 26,800 units.
Regionally, urban starts decreased 15.7 per cent in Ontario on a seasonally adjusted annual rate and were down 13.5 per cent in Quebec.

However, urban starts jumped 27.1 per cent in Atlantic Canada, were 13.8 per cent higher on the Prairies and 13.1 per cent higher in British Columbia.

Emanuella Enenajor, an economist at CIBC World Markets, said the overall numbers were in line with her expectations but better than a consensus estimate calling for the seasonally adjusted rate to fall to 175,000 in March.

2013年三月份卡尔加里房地产统计

源供给不足， 抑制了房屋交易量

------公寓市场持续改善，独立屋市场成交下降

Calgary, 四月二日, 2013 – 三月份卡尔加里在售的房源总量达到了五年来同期的最低点。新挂牌量的降低抑制了二手房市场销售量的增长，本月份成交总量比去年同期将低2%。

同时新挂牌量比去年同期低5%，也比去年第一季度总体低了5%。目前在售总房源4006套，比二月份高一点，但仍然比去年同期低。不断降低的供给，最终会导致销售的降低。同时，成交天数也明显降低，这些都将会给小幅上涨的价格带来压力。买家们已经习惯了慢慢悠悠地看房子、选房子，因为市场上的房源充分。但是，当市场环境变换了，如果他们真地想买房子的话，不能拖延考虑的时间。（你不下手，别的买家就下手了。并不是我在催促大家赶快买房子，而是，我并不希望大家丢掉好不容易看好的房子。）

目前的市场环境和狂热的2006、2007年有天壤之别，在那之后的几年以来，市场准则改变了。

本月独立屋成交比去年同期低了6%，就因为新上市房源降低。目前可售房源2713套，比去年同期低了22%，是2007年以来最低的纪录 ，差不多都成了卖方市场了。三月份市场基准价为$446,500，比去年同期增长了近9%。  

同时租赁市场的火爆、就业率的提升，都支撑了卡尔加里房价的上涨（现在，几乎是人都知道租赁市场火爆了，空置率也是几年来的最低时期）。不过，买家要想买到称心的房子、还要是好价格的话，他们的可选房源可是越来越紧缩了。尤其是预算在50万以内的买家可选房源降低了两位数值，不少买家都看周边城镇（怎么就不多看看我CHESTMERE的在售房屋呢？）、公寓、开发商新楼盘了。

 

排屋市场是本月一枝独秀成交量增长的部分，原因之一是因为三月份新挂牌量比去年同期增长了。共管公寓市场/apartment销售降低了3%（没说比二月份低，还是比去年低）。不过，共管公寓第一季度成交830单元，仍比去年同期涨6%。排屋成交652套，比去年同期涨了15 %。

 

共管公寓市场基本平衡，供需之间良性发展。三月份市场基准价为$257,700， 比去年同期涨6%。排屋市场基准价为 $286,800，比去年同期涨4%。

 

尽管市场供给紧缩，但是我们也没看出价格会大幅攀升的迹象。我们预计今年其它经济区段的发展会放缓，另外消费者始终拥有选择不同房源的权利。

（不好意思，Evergreen2006-2013的价格均价走势仍然只完成到2007年，我会尽快做完。）

SOLD 西南区Millrise 独立小屋 两层楼

                                                   1220 Millcrest Rise SW C3550893

Nice and clean 2 storey, 3 bedroom home located in a quiet street close to schools, shopping and transit. Very spacious interior and nice layout with family room, living room, dining room, kitchen and a half bath on main floor. Features include laminate flooring, newer paint with neutral decor, vinyl windows and newer fridge and stove. Spacious kitchen with eating area overlooking family room with a cozy wood burning fire place. Also there is a side door as well as a sliding patio door on the main floor. Upper level includes the master bedroom with walk in closet plus 2 more good sized bedrooms and a 4pice bath. Outside is a large deck and double detached garage. Great family home!